Nasrallah is Losing the Hearts and Minds

Hassan Nasrallah gave an interview to a TV station in Lebanon and said that had he known the capture of 2 Israeli soldiers would have led to war, he wouldn't have done it. Given Hezbollah's actions in initiating the war, escalating the war and using its own civilians as shields, this is the most illogical analysis conceivable. But it also demonstrates that at least some form of democracy exists in Lebanon that Nasrallah feels compelled to respond to.

Nasrallah's statement is tantamount to taking repsonsibility for the war, which would be logical if he was claiming victory. But he wasn't. He was reacting to the building rage at Hezbollah for the death and destruction that was left in Lebanon in the after-math of his adventure. Now that many of the world's TV cameras have gone home and the citizens of Lebanon are left to pick up the pieces, many people are soberly reflecting on their ruined lives.

Nasrallah's first attempt at appeasing the people was the cash gift of $12,000 per household. While I'm sure the money came in handy, how could it replace lives, limbs, livelioods, property, etc? So now, the big apology. He wouldn't have done it, if he knew it would have led to war. How can the Lebanese victims, the ones that willingly provided their homes for rocket launches or the mothers and fathers who saw their young boys join the fight or all the innocent by-standers accept this? He is telling them that all the misery was caused by his political miscalculation. Oops.

Nasrallah would never demonstrate such weakness unless he knew he was losing the "hearts and minds" of the people. I'm sure the world press will be lulled into viewing him as some sort of statesman for his "honest" analysis, and will report that the people are on his side. Don't believe it. The Lebanese are not stupid and they will see the obvious contradiction in his statement. If he didn't think the abduction would lead to war, why didn't he return the soldiers in the days or weeks after the war began - better yet, why has he still not returned them?