Israel Lost The War - Badly

Nations should only embark on war to implement a fundamentally important strategy that will have a permanent impact. As Israel is learning, more importantly a nation should never retreat from its war aims once the war has been launched. The decision to go to war boils down to a decision to trade lives for some important objective. To lose lives and not achieve the objective can fray the fabric of society. For an example, just look at the US experience in the years after the Vietnam war.

When Hezbollah attacked Israel in July, abducted 2 soldiers and fired rockets into civilian targets, Israel was faced with a choice of responding tactically or strategically. A tactical response may have been modelled on their experience with Palestinians terror; targeted killing of leaders, limited air strikes, abduction of fighters, etc. Instead, Israel chose a much more strategic course of action, by going towar, with the objective of removing Hezbollah as a threat to the northern border. In that context there really is no debate that Israel lost the war. The trade off didn't materialize. There are dead Israeli soldiers and civilians, but nothing was gained in return.

In contrast, recall the last war Israel fought in Lebanon in 1982. The circumstances were remarkably similar, only the name of the enemy was different. The P.L.O. had set up shop in Southern Lebanon and used their base to direct terrorist activities against Israel and to shell civilian populations in Northern border towns. Similar to this year's conflict with Hezbollah there was a trigger event. The P.L.O. assassinated Israel's ambassador to England. In response, Israel embarked on a war with the objective of evicting the P.L.O. from the area and creating a security zone in Lebanon that would remain free of hostile enemies.

Sound familiar? The difference is the objective in 1982 was achieved. I still remember the scenes of ships full of P.L.O. fighters leaving en masse from Lebanon. Though there was a segment of Israeli society that remained opposed to the war and the subsequent occupation, the fabric of Israeli society remained strong and united. Israel won the war and no Israeli soldier died needlessly.

It is still too early to tell, but the loss in this war may yet have negative repercussions for Israeli society. However, I think we already know some of the strategic consequences of Israel's military loss.

1. Israel's enemies may now view her as militarily vulnerable, a potentially fatal problem for a country whose enemies want to see her wiped off the map.
2. With the introduction of International forces in the area, Israel will be prevented from utilizing any of its tactical responses to any future Hezbollah provocations.
3. Israel's armed forces and reservists will likely suffer from diminished morale, because they didn't win and the soldiers haven't been returned. They will rightly question why their fellow soldiers died. What was achieved in return for their blood?

Prime Minister Olmert appropriately began the war with objectives that would have provided Israel with a strategically important change in circumstances. But he failed, because he didn't see it through to the end and the population will likely punish him very soon.